Monte Carlo Simulations: Is Your “Probability of Success” Trustworthy?

In this episode, we take a closer look at Monte Carlo simulations—a tool used in retirement planning to estimate your chances of success. But are those percentages really reliable? Can an 85% or 90% success rate give you confidence in your retirement plan? We’ll explain how these simulations work, how different assumptions can lead to very different results, and why you shouldn’t just rely on past returns. 

If you’re thinking, "I love the Big Picture Retirement podcast!” please consider rating and reviewing this show! This helps us support more people -- just like you -- move toward a confident retirement. Just scroll down to the “ratings and reviews” section, tap to rate with five stars, and select “Write a Review.” Then be sure to let us know what you loved most about the episode!

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Don’t miss the Big Picture Retirement Planning Cheat Sheet. We've distilled the essential brackets, thresholds, and rules of retirement into an easy-to-digest, three-page summary. https://www.carrolladvisory.com/pl/2148282517 

Want to ask Devin or John your question? Just visit https://www.bigpictureretirement.com/ and click on the “Ask A Question” menu selection. 

Although this show does not provide specific tax, legal, or financial advice, you can engage Devin or John through their individual firms. 

Contact Devin’s team at https://www.carrolladvisory.com/ 

Contact John’s team at https://www.rossandshoalmire.com/ 

If you’re thinking "I love the Big Picture Retirement podcast!” please consider rating and reviewing this show! This helps us support more people -- just like you -- move toward a confident retirement. Just scroll down to the “ratings and reviews” section, tap to rate with five stars, and select “Write a Review.” Then be sure to let us know what you loved most about the episode!

Also, if you haven’t done so already, follow the podcast. We’re adding new content every week, and if you’re not following, there’s a good chance you’ll miss out. Follow now! 

Don’t miss the Big Picture Retirement Planning Cheat Sheet. We've distilled the essential brackets, thresholds, and rules of retirement into an easy-to-digest, three-page summary. https://www.carrolladvisory.com/pl/2148282517 

Want to ask Devin or John your question? Just visit https://www.bigpictureretirement.com/ and look for the tab on the right side that says “Send A Voicemail.” 

Although this show does not provide specific tax, legal, or financial advice, you can engage Devin or John through their individual firms. 

Contact Devin’s team at https://www.carrolladvisory.com/ 

Contact John’s team at https://www.rossandshoalmire.com/ 

Want to ask a question? You can find us in our Facebook group. https://www.facebook.com/groups/bigpictureretirement